Is Confidence Overrated?

In her new book Dialed In, Canadian psychologist Dr. Dana Sinclair draws on decades of experience to challenge conventional thinking around performance. She puts forward several interesting ideas, including “confidence is a preference, not a necessity” and “confidence is overrated.”

In fact, she is not dismissing the value of confidence altogether; rather, she argues that confidence is not a prerequisite for high performance and, in many cases, is an unreliable foundation to depend on. In her view, what truly drives consistent performance is not the feeling of being confident, but controllable factors such as behavior, preparation, and focus.

More specifically, she outlines several reasons why confidence is often overvalued.

First, confidence is fundamentally an emotion, and emotions fluctuate. It can vary based on environment, pressure, physical state, or even time of day, while actual ability remains relatively stable. If performance is tied to whether one feels confident on a given day, it becomes dependent on an unstable variable.

Second, high performance does not rely on confidence, but on execution. Many people assume that confidence comes before performance, but in reality, it is the opposite: high performers frequently execute at a high level despite feeling uncertain or nervous, relying instead on training, experience, and systems rather than feelings.

Third, confidence is least reliable under pressure. In critical moments, such as important presentations, decisions, or competitions, confidence often drops. If one’s strategy is to wait until they feel confident before acting, it is most likely to fail when it matters most.

Fourth, focusing on confidence can actually distract from performance. When people constantly ask themselves, “Am I confident enough?” their attention shifts inward, away from the task at hand. Yet high-quality performance requires focus, not self-evaluation.

Fifth, competence is far more reliable than confidence. Competence can be developed through training and experience and tends to be stable, whereas confidence is merely a subjective perception of that competence. Even when confidence is low, underlying ability remains—and that is what should be trusted.

Sixth, overemphasizing confidence can delay action. If someone waits until they “feel ready” before acting, they risk getting stuck in hesitation. In many cases, action itself is what builds confidence, not the other way around.

In summary, her core thesis is that confidence is an unstable feeling, while performance comes from stable systems of behavior. Therefore, rather than relying on confidence, individuals should focus on building repeatable and controllable execution capabilities.

From my personal experience, I strongly resonate with her perspective. If you ask me, at this stage of my career and experience, whether I should already feel very confident, my honest answer is still no. For example, when I enter an unfamiliar environment, I still feel uncertainty and hesitation. When I am about to host a large event, even the day before, I find myself questioning whether I can do it well and worrying about letting others down. When preparing a new podcast episode, I often second-guess my judgment and wonder whether the topic will resonate with the audience.

These experiences reinforce the idea that confidence is not a prerequisite. Regardless of how I feel, the work still needs to get done. Instead of spending time trying to convince myself to “feel more confident,” I’ve found it far more effective to focus on what is within my control: preparing more thoroughly, thinking through the process more carefully, and executing each detail to the best of my ability. In the end, what allows me to stand on solid ground is not a feeling, but the quality of my preparation and execution, letting the results speak for themselves.

In the workplace, we often emphasize the importance of building employees’ confidence. In many cases, confidence has even been treated as a core competency to be evaluated and developed. Prehaps this assumption is worth reexamining. Confidence is not a stable, consistently deployable capability; it is a subjective feeling that shifts with context. In familiar environments, we may naturally feel more assured, but in new situations, higher-stakes scenarios, or moments of uncertainty, even the most experienced individuals can feel shaken. In reality, very few people can maintain high confidence across all situations.

Therefore, when managing or coaching employees, we should avoid overemphasizing confidence as the primary goal. Instead, we should return to what truly matters: helping people perform effectively. Rather than repeatedly encouraging someone to “be more confident,” it is more valuable to support them in improving the quality of their preparation, building clear execution pathways, strengthening key capabilities, and accumulating experience through practice.

When individuals are able to consistently deliver results across different emotional states, confidence tends to emerge naturally as a byproduct.

在加拿大著名心理学家Dana Sinclair博士的新书《Dialed In》里，Dr. Sinclair根据她多年的经验，提出了“自信并非必要条件”（Confidence is a preference, not a necessity），“自信被高估了”（confidence is Overrated）等核心观点。

她说她并不是否定自信的价值，而是觉得自信并不是高绩效的必要条件，甚至在很多情况下是一个不可靠的依赖对象。她认为，真正驱动稳定表现的，并不是情绪层面的感觉良好，而是可控的行为、训练和专注力。

具体来说，她认为自信被高估主要有以下几个原因：

第一，自信本质上是一种情绪，而情绪是波动的。自信会随着环境、压力、身体状态甚至一天中的时间变化而起伏，但能力本身并不会同步波动。如果把自己的表现建立在“我今天有没有自信”上，就等于把结果交给一个不稳定的变量。

第二，高绩效并不依赖自信，而依赖执行。很多人误以为先有自信，后有表现，但她说，现实往往是相反的，很多高表现者是在不自信甚至紧张的状态下依然完成高质量执行。他们依赖的是训练、经验和流程，而不是感觉。

第三，在高压情境下，自信往往最不可靠。在关键时刻（例如重要演讲、决策或比赛），自信反而容易下降。如果一个人的策略是等自己有信心后再行动，那在最关键的时候反而最容易失效。

第四，关注自信会分散注意力，影响表现。当人不断自问我够不够自信时，注意力就从完成任务转移到了自己内心的感受。而高质量表现往往需要的是对任务本身的专注，而不是对自我状态的评估。

第五，能力（competence）比自信（confidence）更可靠。她说，能力是可以通过训练和经验积累的，是相对稳定的；而自信只是对能力的主观感受。即使你感觉不自信，你的能力依然存在，因此更值得依赖的是能力本身。

第六，过度追求自信会延迟真正的行动。如果一个人把感觉一切都准备好了作为行动前提，就容易陷入等待状态。但在很多情况下，行动本身才是建立信心的来源，而不是结果。

总结一下，她的核心理论就是自信是一种不稳定的感觉，而表现来自于稳定的行为系统；因此，与其依赖自信，不如建立可重复、可控的执行能力。

我自己在听了她的演讲之后也非常赞同她的观点。如果你问我到现在这个年龄与资历，我是否应该已经很又信心了，我觉得依然不是。比如，当我去一个陌生的环境时，内心依然会有不确定和犹豫；当我需要主持一个大型活动的前一天，还是会怀疑自己是否能够做好，甚至担心辜负大家的期待；当我在准备一个全新的播客内容时，也会反复质疑自己的判断，担心这个选题是否真的有人喜欢。

这些经历印证了自信并不是前提，无论我是否感觉自信，这些任务我都还是要去完成。与其把时间花在不断说服自己我要更有信心，不如把精力放在更实际的事情上，把内容准备得更扎实，把流程想得更周全，把每一个细节尽可能做到位。到最后，真正让我站得住脚的，不是一种感觉，而是充分的准备与周到的执行，让最终结果来说话。

再看看职场的环境，我们常常强调要培养员工的自信心，甚至在很多时候，confidence 已经被当作一种必须具备的 competency 来要求和衡量。但从Sinclair博士的视角来看，这本身就是一个值得反思的假设。因为自信并不是一个稳定、可持续输出的能力，它更像是一种会随情境变化的主观感受。在熟悉的环境中，我们可能自然会更有把握；但一旦进入陌生场景、面对更高 stakes 或不确定性，再有经验的人也可能出现动摇。事实上，很少有人可以真正做到在任何场合下都始终保持高度自信。

因此，我们在管理或者辅导员工时，不要过度把建立自信当作核心目标，而是回到更本质的问题：如何帮助员工把事情做好。与其反复鼓励对方你要更有信心，不如帮助他们提升准备的质量、建立清晰的执行路径、强化关键能力，并在实践中不断积累经验。当一个人能够在不同情绪状态下依然稳定输出时，自信往往就会自然产生。